Is There a Consumer Breaking Point In Terms Of Convergence?

Question: Is technology driving the move towards convergence or are manufacturers and technology suppliers simply responding to artificial market demand and expectations? Answer: We can’t be positive one way or the other. All we know for sure is that consumers want better cameras, better video, VoIP, and WLAN, and they are running out of pockets. So it only makes sense to build convergent multifunctional devices. But there are also conflicting signals in the convergence mix.

Let’s take my home-theater system as an example. I have (according to my wife) a dozen remote controls cluttering up the coffee table with a wiring matrix with five kilometers of random cables, and takes up every available outlet, and dims the lights every time I flip the power switch (yes there is a continual monologue as to how I am the only one who can actually turn it on – sound familiar?). I am theoretically ripe for a convergent system which would eliminate all the wiring problems and simplify programming.

But if a TV/PC/WLAN/cable-modem/Webcam/DVD/CD/VCR with surround sound, and one remote running the whole thing was available, there wouldn’t be many takers (certainly not me). We like choices, and in this scenario the choices would be far too limited. But we seem to gladly risk being totally out of commission if our cellular telephone/PDA/camera breaks. The challenge in the convergence game will be to find the consumer’s breaking point. As is the case with the size question, we must all discover how much convergence is too much.

We are entering an era when consumers are using their electronics as an extension of who they are. Whether it is a special screen saver, a unique ring tone, or special start-up and shut-down tunes, their “settings” are becoming a personal statement. This new twist to consumer electronics holds vast implications for chipset designers. For example, future market research may show that when it comes to convergent portable electronics, consumers want a telephone/camera/PDA combination. But the first company to produce a customizable combination of different technologies in a single device will turn the entire market on its head. Fortunes could be made or lost simply on the availability of customizable options. This is an area in which SoC technology, particularly when it is programmable, offers incredible potential.

As SoC capabilities expand and costs go down, equipment manufacturers could find themselves in the unique position of building products with dozens of convergent technologies on a single chip. Each technology could be turned on at the time of sale, depending on consumer preferences and budget.

The next few years will be critical for the portable-equipment industry. Display technologies will begin to shake out, convergence will take hold, and demand for our products will skyrocket. We are on the verge of giving me, a consumer, what I really want: I want it my way.